Posted: May 2nd, 2010 by Militant Libertarian
Graphic courtesy of Climate Realists, who noted: “As shown in the chart above, if the global mean temperature cycle behaves the way it behaved for the last 130 years, there will be global cooling until 2030. In contrast, the IPCC projections that started its divergence away from observed temperature about 2005 will continue its imaginary trajectory towards its exaggerated target temperature.”
From Girma Orssengo, B. Tech, MASc, PhD, the math:
t is true that the global warming of the 20th century was unprecedented. As a result, it is true that the corresponding sea level rise, melting of sea ice or the corresponding climate change in general were unprecedented. However, this was because the century started when the oscillating anomaly was at its minimum near 1910 with GMTA of –0.64 deg C and ended when it was at its maximum near 2000 with GMTA [Global Mean Temperature Anomaly] of 0.48 deg C, giving a large global warming of 0.48+0.64=1.12 deg C. This large warming was due to the rare events of two global warming phases of 0.77 deg C each but only one cooling phase of 0.44 deg C occurring in the 20th century, giving a global warming of 2*0.77-0.42=1.12 deg C.
In contrast to the 20th century, from Figure 3, there will be nearly no change in GMTA in the 21st century. This is because the century started when the oscillating anomaly was at its maximum near 2000 with GMTA of 0.48 deg C and will end when it is at its minimum near 2090 with GMTA of 0.41 deg C, giving a negligible change in GMTA of 0.41-0.48=-0.07 deg C. This negligible change in GMTA is due to the rare events of two global cooling phases of 0.42 deg C each but only one warming phase of 0.77 deg C occurring in the 21st century, giving the negligible change in GMTA of 0.77-2*0.42=-0.07 deg C. Note that this little change in GMTA for the 21st century is identical to that from 1880 to 1970, which makes the global warming from 1970 to 2000 by 0.77 deg C appear to be abnormally high.
If the period for a century had been 120 years, we wouldn’t have this conundrum of nearly 1 deg C warming in the 20th century but nearly none in the next!
Global cooling is the killer, not global warming.
Global warming melts ice and gives us more arable land, which is a good thing because we have 7 billion mouths to feed now (or will in a short time).
Global cooling shortens the growing season and causes things like the Irish famines of the 1840s.