When All Else Fails

New paper claims a value one seventh of the IPCC best estimate for Climate Sensitivity for a CO2 doubling

by Paul Ostergaard, WattsUpWithThat

Here is an interesting new paper that Miklos Zagoni has pointed me to via Judith Curry’s blog. This researcher in Germany has carried out a spectroscopic analysis of the impact of CO2 and other greenhouse gases’ contribution to warming.

It arrives (surprise!) at a value one seventh of the IPCC best estimate for Climate Sensitivity for a CO2 doubling. Looks intriguing at first blush…

The climate sensitivity CS as a measure for the temperature increase found, when the actual CO2-concentration is doubled, assumesCS = 0.41 ?C for the tropical zone, CS = 0.40 ?C for the moderate zones and CS = 0.92 ?C for the polar zones. The weighted average over all regions as the global climate sensitivity is found to be CS = 0.45 ?C with an estimated uncertainty of 30%, which mostly results from the lack of more precise data for the convection between the ground and atmosphere as well as the atmospheric backscattering…. The values for the global climate sensitivity published by the IPCC [3] cover a range from 2.1 ?C – 4.4 ?C with an average value of 3.2 ?C, which is seven times larger than that predicted here.

Here is the link to the abstract:
http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2011/EGU2011-4505-1.pdf
The paper is being presented at the EGU General Assembly 2011 in Vienna.
Perhaps our WUWT readers can dissect this and see how well it holds up. It is important to  verify if the paper’s methodology is sound.

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