Ze Older Stuff

Day of reckoning draws nearer for IPCC

by Anthony Watts

According to Dr. Clive Best, A key prediction from the 2007 IPCC WG1 report fails statistical tests.

AR4 figure for long term predictions for each scenario

Abstract: Global temperatures measured since 2005 are incompatible with the IPCC model predictions made in 2007 by WG1 in AR4. All subsequent temperature data from 2006 to 2011 lies between 1 and 6 standard deviations below the model predictions. The data show with > 90%  confidence level that the models have over-exaggerated global warming.


Background: In 200o an IPCC special report proposed several future economic scenarioseach with a different CO2 emission profile. For the 2007 assessment report these scenarios were used to model predictions for future global temperatures. The results for each of the scenarios were then used to lobby governments. It would appear that as a result of these predictions, there is  one favoured scenario – namely B1 which alone is capable of limiting temperature rises to 2 degrees.

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